Record-shattering El Niño obliterates temperature records

The 2026 El Niño is now in record territory by a staggering margin. The Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly hit 3.23°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, crushing the previous daily record — set in 1982 — by more than 1.14°C. Canadian CanSIPS modeling predicts the event will peak at +4.2°C in December, with record-breaking conditions lasting through February; a relative La Niña may develop by July 2027. Separately, average global sea surface temperature outside the polar regions stayed above 70°F (21.1°C) through the end of September, significantly above the prior record.

The human cost is coming into focus: a University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab report projects an extra 451,000 deaths between June 2026 and February 2027 from extreme heat driven by this year's record-breaking El Niño.

Sources: Climate and Economy: Oct 3 round-up